UK weather: Rain returns to UK ahead of predicted heatwave

While summer has begun on a cooler and wetter note, some long-range forecast models suggest warmer-than-average conditions could develop across the UK, increasing the likelihood of heatwaves later in the season.

The Met Office released its three-month summer outlook on 1 June – the first day of meteorological summer – citing higher-than-normal chances of hotter weather during the month.

And for the whole summer – which runs through to the end of August – the outlook suggests “an increased chance of heatwaves and heat-related impacts”.

It comes after a late spring heatwave saw temperature records shattered across the UK.

A new all-time May record of 35.1C was set in Kew Gardens, London, replacing the previous record of 32.8C from 1944.

Yellow and amber heat health alerts were also issued for the first time this year.

Long-range forecasts from both the Met Office and MeteoGroup – the provider of BBC Weather data – indicate an increased likelihood of heatwaves during the summer months ahead.

MeteoGroup’s seasonal outlook points to above-average temperatures throughout June, July and August, with the potential for a few notable spikes in temperature and significant bursts of heat affecting both the UK and parts of Europe.

That broadly aligns with the Met Office’s longer-range assessment, which suggests warmer-than-average conditions are more likely this summer. The Met Office notes that the chance of a hotter-than-average summer is now around twice that of the 1991–2020 climate reference period, reflecting the influence of a warming climate.