Can Trump turn midterm defeat into Iran breakthrough?

Vice President JD Vance, in his autopsy of the Republican defeat in the US midterm elections, laid much of the blame on the Iran war, along with the cost of living, perceptions of a drift from America First principles and the US-Israel relationship.

On Israel, President Donald Trump had the jump on Vance, and seeking to preempt Democrats, said on election day, Nov. 3, that he and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had agreed months ago to end US aid by the end of 2026, adding that it had become a “bad talking point” for Democrats.

Asked about Vance’s comments on Iran, Trump said, “It’s largely true because it drove the gasoline up a little bit short term,” adding that he has no regrets “because long term, it’s the only answer. You can’t allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon.”

The impact of the Iran war on the elections should not distract from the urgency and opportunity of addressing Iran’s nuclear program. Trump could be on the verge of a breakthrough. A settlement with Iran would dissolve the partisan acrimony on Iran – Democrats and anti-war Republicans would be hard pressed to oppose a deal, especially if announced before the new Congress is seated in January. A viable framework for negotiations would also be a giant step toward the administration’s historic progress of greater economic and energy integration between the Gulf and Levant, which would benefit stability in Gaza, Lebanon and throughout the region.