Brazil elections: Lula secures fourth term after dramatic comeback

Lula’s campaign sprang back to life following his first-round defeat driven by street demonstrations and a massive social media push.

The former metalworker, who has been the dominant figure on Brazil’s left since he first ran for president in 1989, nevertheless faces the most challenging political landscape since first taking office in 2003.

His new term, set to begin on 5 January 2027, will start amid significant constraints at home and abroad, including animosity from US President Donald Trump.

While Trump did not endorse Lula’s rival, Flávio Bolsonaro, directly – something he did with the right-wing candidates who went on to win presidential elections held in Colombia and Honduras – there is little doubt his administration would have preferred to see a conservative at the helm of this country of 213 million people.

The White House regards Latin America as an area of US influence with the Trump administration keen to have leaders in power who support its policies, including on defence, security and trade.

It is also keen to reduce China’s influence in the Western Hemisphere.

Brazil, which is oil-rich and holds the world’s second-largest reserves of rare earth minerals, is the only big country in South America not governed by a right-wing leader, with Lula largely seen as China-friendly.

Flávio Bolsonaro had promised to align Brazil more closely with Washington while Lula had warned the US not to interfere in the election and insisted that Brazil would “never fit into anyone’s backyard”.

But while there may be disappointment in the White House, Lula’s victory will be welcomed by environmentalists who had feared that a win by Bolsonaro would have given Brazil’s influential agribusiness and mining sectors more power.

They had pointed to record levels of deforestation and forest fires in the Amazon during the presidency of his father, Jair, arguing that under the younger Bolsonaro laxer environmental policies could again lead to destruction in this key ecosystem.