Key takeaways from the 2026 midterm elections in California

November 4, 2026 adminsr

While votes are still being counted in California, a handful of important races in the midterm elections have already been called or are pointing firmly in one direction.

Despite its status as a reliably Democratic stronghold, the Western state has played a dynamic role in Tuesday’s United States elections, acting as a testing ground for questions as varied as partisan redistricting and tax measures targeting billionaires.

Democrats ahead in key races

While vote-counting was still under way, Democratic candidates have pulled decisively ahead in several contests seen as must-wins for the party’s effort to take control of the US House of Representatives.

To boost the party’s chances, voters a year ago approved a partisan redistricting measure promoted by Governor Gavin Newsom to net Democrats five additional seats in the US House.

One such race took place in the state’s 22nd Congressional District, located in the agriculture-rich Central Valley.

Progressive educator Randy Villegas celebrated the results of the race on Tuesday night as the Democrat held a commanding lead of about 30 percentage points over Republican incumbent David Valadao.

Democratic candidate Marni von Wilpert is also ahead in the 48th district, located in Southern California near San Diego, where she is leading Republican Jim Desmond by about 20 points.

While those advantages are considerable, The Associated Press news agency has not yet officially called those races.

Progressive Aisha Wahab is also firmly ahead in her race against Melissa Hernandez, a fellow Democrat, in the 14th district.

Wahab overcame substantial spending by pro-Israel groups to defeat the establishment-aligned Hernandez in a special election in September. She is now on track to win a full term in that seat.

With her previous victory, Wahab became the first person of Afghan ancestry elected to Congress.

In the San Francisco Bay Area, moderate Democrat Scott Wiener is leading progressive rival Connie Chan in a race for the seat of retiring Representative Nancy Pelosi, the powerful former Democratic House speaker. Wiener has a lead of about 10 points with 50 percent of the vote tallied thus far.

Republicans face another bruising defeat in gubernatorial race

While Republicans across the country have laboured to turn California into a symbol of liberal dysfunction, voters in the state remain unconvinced that conservatives offer a better alternative.

The gubernatorial race was called for the Democratic candidate, former state Attorney General Xavier Becerra, immediately after the polls closed.

Becerra’s Republican rival, British political commentator Steve Hilton, had argued that years of unbroken Democratic domination had resulted in sky-high prices and public disorder.

But his bid to underscore cost-of-living issues by holding campaign events where he offered discounted petrol fell flat at a time when many voters blame President Donald Trump’s war on Iran for eye-watering prices at the pump.

Becerra’s victory comes more than five years after Republicans tried to dislodge Newsom through a recall election that failed by a margin of more than 20 points.

In the past, Republicans could console themselves that if they remained in electoral purgatory in the most populous US state, their Democratic rivals were likewise locked out of power in conservative strongholds such as Texas.

Tuesday’s losses will sting a bit more after a series of shock wins by Democrats in states that can usually be counted on to deliver easy wins for Republicans, including Texas.

Uncertainty over some ballot measures

While some results have come in quickly, tight contests over some of the state’s ballot measures, or policy questions put directly before voters, have yet to be called.

Proposition 40, which would institute a one-time tax on the net worth of billionaires in the state to help fund programmes such as healthcare and education, is trailing with about 44 percent of the counted votes in favour and 56 percent against.

The measure won support from progressive figures, such as Senator Bernie Sanders and Representative Ro Khanna, but prompted a deluge of spending from wealthy donors and companies to oppose it.

The Associated Press has announced that Proposition 39, which would have instituted voter ID laws sought by conservatives, has been rejected by voters.