What Does History Say About The 6MOY Race?

MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA – NOVEMBER 10: Naz Reid #11 of the Minnesota Timberwolves drives to the basket against Jaime Jaquez Jr. #11 of the Miami Heat in the second quarter at Target Center on November 10, 2024 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The Heat defeated the Timberwolves 95-94. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by David Berding/Getty Images)

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We’re in a weird part of the NBA schedule. The All-Star game is behind us, teams are gearing up for the playoffs, and the league front office is desperately trying to massage the widespread tanking epidemic.

With all this going on, it can be easy to lose sight of what really matters – like the end-of-season award races! This year, barring injuries, the MVP (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander), DPOY (Victor Wembanyama), ROY (Cooper Flagg), COY (J.B. Bickerstaff), and MIP (Deni Avdija) awards all seem to be solidified, as all of those players currently have minus odds on betting websites like FanDuel.

The one major award that still seems wide open is the Sixth Man of the Year race. To add some context to the situation, we examine recent history to predict who the real frontrunners are this time around.

2025-26 NBA Sixth Man of the Year Betting Odds.

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Who Usually Wins Sixth Man Of The Year?

Looking back at past 6MOY winnersyou see there are two main requirements. One, you need to be a good scorer, and two, you (usually) need to be on a winning team.

Since 2001-02, every player who has won the 6MOY award has averaged at least 13 PPG (it’s wild to think that it extends that far back, considering the drastic uptick in offensive efficiency we’ve witnessed in the last decade). In that same span of time, 19 of those 24 players (79.2%) played for teams that finished in the top four in their conference. The key exceptions to that last stipulation are Lou Williams (twice), Jason Terry (2008-09), Mike Miller (2005-06), and Antawn Jamison (2003-04), who all still played on teams that made the playoffs.

Who Are The Best Candidates This Year?

With this in mind, here is a look at all the players averaging at least 13 PPG (minimum 30 games coming off the bench), along with where their team currently sits in their conference’s standings.

Based on this, Tim Hardaway Jr., Ajay Mitchell (who is close to being ineligible due to games missed), and Keldon Johnson are the three top candidates.

Still, it isn’t that simple, and there are more wrinkles to unpack here. First, the season isn’t over, and the Minnesota Timberwolves are just a half-game back from the fourth seed. This would open the door for Naz Reid and Ayo Dosunmu. Although, since they play on the same team, they may get in each other’s way with overlapping votes. With that said, you also need to factor in that Reid gets a little bit of a legacy bump for winning it last year (hence why he has the current highest odds on all mainstream sportsbooks).

Player stats aren’t complete yet, either. Reed Sheppard (who plays for the fourth-seeded Houston Rockets) is currently averaging 12.7 PPG, and a late-season heater could be enough to power his scoring numbers and boost his overall candidacy.

Some other guys who may have enough scoring/team success to secure the award (so long as they make it to the playoffs) include Jaime Jaquez Jr. (who averages the most bench points per game) and Quentin Grimes (if he can bump up his PPG).

I know we’re throwing out a lot of names. So, let’s try to put a neat little bow on this analysis. Based on what we’ve discussed, you can firmly cross guys like Anfernee Simons, Collin Sexton, Bobby Portis, and Santi Aldama off the list, as their teams (the Chicago Bulls, Milwaukee Bucks, and Memphis Grizzlies) will probably not be making the playoffs.

If the standings stay the same, Hardaway, Mitchell, and Johnson should be the frontrunners, with Reid, Dosunmu, Jaquez, and (potentially) Grimes/Sheppard also vying for position.

This has been one of the best 6MOY races in recent memory. And even when you dig deeper into the data, it seems like this battle will go the distance.