Trump administration’s mixed messaging sparks wild swings in oil markets

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Chris Wright, the US energy secretary, on Tuesday afternoon declared a huge potential breakthrough for energy markets rattled by the Iran war.

With the conflict raging, Wright wrote on X that the US Navy had “successfully escorted” an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz — just hours after General Dan Caine, the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, said the military was still exploring “options” for protecting vessels in the strategic passage for ships transiting in and out of the Gulf.

But the relief was shortlived: in less than two hours, the post was deleted and the statement denied by White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt.

The episode triggered wild swings in the oil marketwith crude initially plunging on signs the vital waterway could soon be reopened and then surging after Leavitt doused the hopes.

It has also exposed the confusion surrounding Donald Trump’s messaging around the war, which has sent US petrol prices surging and upended the president’s efforts to convince voters that he is addressing the country’s affordability crisis in the run-up to November’s midterm elections.

Trump on Monday insisted the conflict would end “very soon” as he faced growing pressure to cut short a war in the Middle East that is suffering from lacklustre public support.

The president’s comments helped soothe oil markets, pushing international benchmark Brent crude down to about $90 a barrel by Monday evening from a high of nearly $120 earlier in the day.

But by Tuesday, Trump and his top officials were no longer signalling that an end was in sight.

Pete Hegseth, defence secretary, instead hailed the “most intense” day of US strikes since the conflict began on February 28.

Leavitt insisted Trump was seeking “unconditional surrender” from Iran to ensure that it no longer posed a threat to the US and its allies. When asked how the war ended on CNBC, Steve Witkoff, Trump’s special envoy for peace missions, said: “I don’t know.”

Democrats on the Senate armed services committee who received a classified briefing on the war on Tuesday were unconvinced that the president was on the verge of ending US strikes on Iran.

“I can tell you what I heard is not just concerning, it is disturbing,” Nevada senator Jacky Rosen said. “I’m not sure what the end game is or what their plans are. They certainly have not made their case.”

With Trump not ruling out sending ground forces to Iran and openly considering sending special forces to seize the country’s enriched uranium stockpiles, Richard Blumenthal, the Connecticut senator who also attended the briefing, said he was “dissatisfied and angry”, and had “more questions than answers”.

“We seem to be on a path toward deploying American troops on the ground in Iran to accomplish any of the potential objectives here,” he said.

By the end of Tuesday, despite the White House’s attempt to limit the damage to energy markets by backing joint G7 action, Brent crude was hovering around $88 a barrel, about $20 a barrel above where it stood one month ago.

The confusion prompted Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s foreign minister, to accuse US officials on X of “posting fake news to manipulate markets”.

This is creating a potentially brutal political environment for Republicans heading into November’s elections when Trump’s party hopes to retain control of both houses of Congress — especially because the party campaigned on bringing down prices and avoiding global conflicts in 2024.

“The American people by and large don’t like foreign adventurism and certainly not when it impacts their wallet,” said John Feehery, a Republican strategist and former congressional aide.

He added Republicans were “completely freaked out” about the midterms and the war did not help. “You don’t want gas prices up to $4 [a gallon],” he said.

Petrol prices have jumped from less than $3 a gallon to about $3.50 since the US attacked Iran on February 28.

The administration is “under a tremendous amount of pressure to figure out what the endgame is because the goalposts keep shifting”, added Ron Bonjean, another Republican strategist.

“I think it’s tethered to the market: when gas prices are going up, Trump is saying that we’re almost done. But when analysts say that gas prices will go down in the short term . . . that encourages the White House to think, well, maybe we can keep going a little longer and weather this,” Bonjean said.

Hegseth admitted Trump alone would decide when to end the war. “He gets to control the throttle,” the defence secretary said on Tuesday. “He’s the one deciding.”

Additional reporting for Jamie Smyth