The Bucks’ Future: How The Giannis Era Led To An Organizational Crisis

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – DECEMBER 17: Giannis Antetokounmpo #34 of the Milwaukee Bucks celebrates after he checked out late in the fourth quarter of the championship game of the Emirates NBA Cup against the Oklahoma City Thunder at T-Mobile Arena on December 17, 2024 in Las Vegas, Nevada. The Bucks defeated the Thunder 97-81. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images)

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When the NBA trade deadline expires this Thursday, the Milwaukee Bucks will face their brand-new reality. As they pursue interest from some 28 teams (as reported by ESPN) and submit counter offers this week, if the right deal can be struck, it’s likely that Giannis Antetokounmpo will not be a Buck by this weekend.

The move would kick-start the inevitable rebuild for the Bucks who have dug themselves into an 18-29 hole as they search for answers through their lousy season. It wasn’t that long ago they were perennial contenders. How exactly did the Bucks get here so quickly you might ask?

In the era of player empowerment, the Buck’s choices around coaches and roster pieces have been shaped to align with Giannis’ blessing. The last three seasons have been telling. The Bucks went from a 58-24 contender to 12th in the Eastern Conference. Along the way they chewed through four different coaches in two years. One of their missteps included overlooking Nick Nurse, who coached the Toronto Raptors their first-ever championship, for rookie coach Adrian Griffin who was a Giannis-endorsed pick. He lasted 43 games (30-13) before Doc Rivers came on board as an experienced figure to stop fans from feeling the team had no direction. But it didn’t solve the on court woes.

The Superstar Trap

The Athletic’s Spencer Harrison wrote about the Giannis superstar trap and why leaders continue to go all-in and how trades that seem extreme are a consequence of leverage.

“The lesson isn’t that NBA teams are reckless or foolish. It’s that power shapes decision-making more than evidence does,” he wrote. “As long as superstars control exit options, teams will continue to overpay. Not because they misread the odds, but because the alternative feels worse in the moment.”

Under Rivers the Bucks’ winning percentage keeps plummeting. It was once .585 and now sits at .383 – the second lowest since Giannis joined the team. They have a stagnant offense, ranked 25th in the league with a rating of 112.8. Giannis is doing everything he can, averaging 28 points per game, but no other Buck averages more than 20; only two others average more than 15 and one of them is the injury prone Kevin Porter Jnr who’s played just 23 games.

A Defense in Free-Fall: The Erased Identity

On the defensive end they are ranked 22nd in the NBA with a 117.4 rating and have given up 947 points in their last eight games. Going back to their title year, they had a defensive rating of 111.1 ranked 10th in the NBA.

To keep Giannis from exploring his options elsewhere, the front office in Milwaukee have made a series of win-now gambles on supporting casts that have gone bust.

Khris Middleton, 34, succumbed to injuries and was finally traded to Washington; he played 23 games in his final season with Milwaukee and 47 games in his last two seasons. The Bucks acquired Damian Lillard but that hefty contact only lasted two years before he moved back to Portland. He gave the Bucks 131 games and two years averaging 24.3 and 24.9 points.

They continued to persevere with aging bigs in Bobby Portis and Brook Lopez; Lopez eventually got traded to the Clippers. Kyle Kuzma, 30, got a lifeline but hasn’t impacted the team as hoped. He’s down to career low minutes (26.7) and points (12.8 per game). And all the while they kept Thanasis Antetokounmpo on the books– arguably a comfort pick for Giannis – who has a career average of 2.4 points across 214 games in 7.3 minutes per game.

All of these moves were designed to free up Giannis to play his free safety role; roaming off-ball, attacking the paint, and making use of his length and speed. But all it really achieved in the end was him carrying the team on his back. Now he’s watching from the sidelines with a beaten up calf.

As we approach the trade deadline it’s worth remembering that the Bucks are still taking a $22.5 million hit because of Lillard’s contract. And when you look at its aging roster (5th oldest in the league), and no first round picks until 2031, you can start to understand the self-created nightmare that Bucks general manager Jon Horst has to untangle.

Bucks At a Crossroads And Need to Trade Giannis Now

Where Giannis lands next is anyone’s guess. The initial trade offers have been underwhelming according to media reports. The Miami Heat and Timberwolves are in the hunt. ESPN’s Stephen A. Smith said last week he wants Giannis at the Warriors with Steph Curry and now sees him fitting better at the Knicks. Outside of guesswork, one thing Smith is rock solid on is that the Bucks need to move on Giannis now: not the Summer. He’s not wrong. By waiting, they’re delaying their rebuild back to relevancy.

However this plays out, Milwaukee needs to find a way back and this trade will help propel them toward a more sustainable future. They can’t rely on the all-in approach of one superstar anymore. It worked once. They won a title. Suddenly, it’s been five years since their championship and they’ve backed themselves into a corner. Giannis is still an immense talent and continues to do exceptional things, his magic doesn’t make the team better. We’ve seen enough already this year – and even in last year’s 4-1 playoffs loss to the Pacers – to know Giannis isn’t enough for the Bucks.

Watching them play, it’s easy to see that this year’s version of the Bucks was flawed early on. They went 8-12 to start the year, including a seven-game losing streak. Turnovers (ranked 14th) have crept into their norm now. And the hulking losses have started to pile up: in January the Bucks went 4-8 and were pounded by the Timberwolves by 33, the Spurs by 18 and the Thunder by 20. They even lost to the Wizards (13-35) who are 27th in the league standings overall.

The struggle and frustration for Giannis has seemed to permeate. Even against a Jokic-less Nuggets, Giannis curated a masterful triple-double and it still resulted in a 108-104 loss. Then he got booed on home court and of course, he booed back. All of which has contributed to the tension around Giannis’ exit plan. It’s no longer a matter of if, but when.