Retirees Are Rethinking This “Safe” Withdrawal Strategy. Should You? | The Motley Fool

So, you worked hard your entire life, saved up a bundle of money, and are now getting ready to kick off retirement. There’s just one problem. How do you manage the giant individual retirement account (IRA) or 401(k) you’ve built up?

You need a withdrawal strategy if you want your money to last. And some financial experts may tell you to use the famous 4% rule.

But while the 4% rule is often touted as a safe withdrawal strategy, that’s not a given. And it may not be safe for you.

How the 4% rule works

The 4% rule has you withdrawing 4% of your savings balance in your first year of retirement and adjusting future withdrawals in line with inflation. Following this rule should, in theory, allow your nest egg to last for 30 years.

Why the 4% rule may not be as safe as it seems

The 4% rule makes certain assumptions about how your portfolio is invested. It was also developed using historical market data that may not fully reflect today’s interest rate environment.

In a nutshell, the 4% rule assumes you have a fairly equal mix of stocks and bonds in your portfolio. But if you’re more bond-heavy, your portfolio may not generate enough income to support a 4% withdrawal rate each year, plus inflation adjustments.

Even if you do have a roughly 50/50 asset allocation of stocks and bonds, bonds may not generate high enough yields to safely allow for 4% withdrawals. Morningstar, in fact, says that as of 2026, a 3.9% withdrawal rate may be safer.

And you might think that 3.9% versus 4% won’t make a difference. But over the course of a long retirement, it might.

Plus, the 4% rule is meant to help savings last for 30 years. If you’re retiring in your 50s, though, you may need 35 to 40 years of retirement plan withdrawals, making a 4% rate too risky.

It’s best to take a custom approach

The nice thing about the 4% rule is that it’s easy to follow. But that doesn’t necessarily mean it’s right for you. So, rather than rely on it, try to come up with a withdrawal rate that’s geared toward you specifically, based on your:

• Retirement age
• Life expectancy
• Investment mix
• Income needs
• Tolerance for risk

You may also want to look at a bucket strategy, where you divide your assets into short-term, medium-term, and long-term buckets.

Your short-term bucket should have cash to cover two or three years of expenses so you don’t have to sell stocks in a down market. Your medium bucket can have bonds with relatively predictable yields. And your long-term bucket can be mostly loaded with stocks.

All told, the 4% rule can be a helpful starting point for managing your savings. But don’t assume it’s a sure thing. A better approach is to create a withdrawal strategy that’s both flexible and unique to your situation.