Middle East governments believe US-Iran tension has ‘de-escalated’
Intense diplomatic efforts to dissuade Donald Trump from striking Iran, including communication between the Islamic republic and the US administration, have de-escalated tensions in the Gulf, according to five people close to governments in the region.
Countries including Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Qatar, Oman and Egypt have been urging restraint from the White House, warning of potential damage to Iran’s neighbours in the event of a US strike on the regime, including higher global oil prices.
“Things have de-escalated for now,” one Arab official said. “The US is giving time for talks with Iran and to see where they go from here.”
Communication between Washington and Tehran allowed Iranian officials to assure Trump that there would be no executions of protesters and the death toll was not as high as was being reported outside the country.
The official said hopes were growing that the communication between the two countries, some of which may have been assisted by a third party such as Russia or Oman, could develop into further talks in coming days.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said on Thursday that: “800 executions that were scheduled and supposed to take place yesterday were halted” but added the US was “closely monitoring this situation, and all options remain on the table”.
Leavitt also confirmed Trump spoke to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Tensions soared in recent days after Trump suggested on Tuesday that US action against the regime was imminent, posting on social media that “HELP IS ON ITS WAY” at a time when Iranian demonstrators were facing a harsh crackdown.
Amnesty International said Iranian authorities had committed “mass unlawful killings on an unprecedented scale” to crush the mostly peaceful protests that broke out in late December, with the death toll rising to 2,000 by “official admission”.
However, Trump said on Wednesday he had received assurances that Iran had stopped killing protesters and there were no plans for executions.
“We’ve been told that the killing in Iran is stopping, and it’s stopped. It’s stopping, and there’s no plan for executions or an execution,” Trump said. He did not specify the source of his information.
Trump’s statement caused global oil prices to fall as traders became less concerned about threats of supply disruption from the world’s most important energy-exporting region.
The US on Thursday announced new sanctions against Tehran’s officials whom they said were involved in orchestrating the crackdownas well as individuals and entities they accused of laundering Iran’s oil revenues.
Among the 18 people and entities under sanction were Ali Larijani, secretary of the Supreme Council for National Security, who Washington said was one of the first Iranian leaders to call for violence to suppress the protesters. The US also placed provincial commanders from Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guards under sanctions.
“Our message to the Iranian people is clear. Your demands are legitimate,” said US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent in a video message. “You are protesting for a noble cause and the United States supports you and your efforts.”
He said Washington’s message to Tehran’s leadership was “there’s still time, if you choose to join us. As President Trump has said, stop the violence and stand with the people of Iran.”
The alert level for Al Udeid air base in Qatar was lowered on Thursday, with personnel and equipment returning after some were withdrawn on Wednesday from the US regional military command that hosts about 10,000 troops. The move had fuelled speculation of an imminent US strike in Iran.
The USS Abraham Lincoln carrier group is heading to the region, according to a diplomat and satellite analysis by Ollie Ballinger, a geocomputation lecturer at University College London. The US Navy said it was unable to comment on future naval operations.
It is unclear whether the apparent deployment was a prelude to a strike or meant to confuse Iran, diplomats said.
The US has fewer military assets in the region now than in June, when Trump ordered a bombing raid on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Some former senior defence officials have said that this did not preclude a big US strike, but Washington would prefer to put more assets in place ahead of any major campaign, given Iran’s vow to retaliate.
Regional experts, defence analysts and former US officials have also warned that US air strikes alone would be unlikely to topple Iran’s regime.
While the US was weighing the effectiveness of possible strikes, it had not yet ruled them out, said one of the people.
“Trump is ready to pull the trigger and claim the de-escalation a bluff,” the person said.
But the president wanted a “snappy, defined outcome”, as achieved by his military intervention in Venezuela.
The unrest in Iran and renewed possibility of US intervention have spurred countries in the region to forge closer defence relationships.
Turkey has held talks on deepening defence ties with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, which formed their own mutual defence pact last year, Turkey’s foreign minister Hakan Fidan said.
“Stability in the region can only be achieved by its lead countries,” he said on Thursday. “But we have been bedevilled by lack of trust . . . resolve that trust deficit and 80 per cent of our problems will be solved. We definitely need defence stability in the region.”
Additional reporting by John Paul Rathbone and Lauren Fedor
Cartography by Aditi Bhandari
