Labour braces for defeat in Caerphilly by-election

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Labour is braced for a historic defeat at the upcoming Caerphilly by-election, as its seeks to fend off a growing threat from Reform UK and Plaid Cymru in its Welsh heartlands.

A Labour stronghold, the South Wales Valleys seat has been consistently represented by the party in the Senedd assembly since devolution in 1999. In national elections, it has also continuously returned Labour MPs to the House of Commons for over a century, although one defected to the Social Democratic party in 1981.

However, the October 23 election could see the governing party lose its Senedd seat, with the latest polls putting Labour at just 12 per cent in Caerphilly and sending shockwaves through the party.

Jac Larner, a lecturer in politics at Cardiff University, said he expected a “two-horse race” between Reform and Welsh nationalist party Plaid Cymru.

“Whoever wins it will set the narrative for the Senedd elections next year, which is why this is so important,” said Larner, adding that polling over the past year has shown “Labour falling behind in Wales to historically low numbers”.

A Survation poll put Labour in a distant third place behind Nigel Farage’s rightwing populist Reform, on 42 per cent, and Plaid Cymru, on 38 per cent. The Conservatives lagged with just 4 per cent.

The survey suggested a clear electoral split by age, with younger voters more drawn to Plaid and Reform mopping up the more elderly vote.

A defeat for Labour could result in the party losing its effective majority in the Senedd, which it currently sustains with the support of the assembly’s sole Liberal Democrat member.

Dropping from 29 to 28 seats in the 60-strong assembly would leave Labour having to turn to either Plaid or, less likely, one of the independent members for support on Senedd votes, with or without a formal coalition.

But the by-election result will be closely watched ahead of local and regional elections in May, across Wales, Scotland and England, which pose political danger to both prime minister Sir Keir Starmer and the leader of the Conservatives, Kemi Badenoch.

A defeat for Labour in the Senedd elections could raise serious questions over Starmer’s leadership, given that Wales has been a political stronghold for the party for a century.

Badenoch would also face questions given that the largest segment of Reform’s supporters appears to be former Tory supporters. The survey suggested about 70 per cent of 2021 Senedd Conservative voters now back Reform.

Although only 2.9 per cent of people in Caerphilly were born outside the UK, immigration has been a major focus of Reform’s campaigning in the area.

Wider polling across Wales in recent months has put Labour on just 14 per cent, down from 40 per cent in the 2021 Senedd election.

The data suggests that Plaid has swept up large numbers of left-leaning former Labour voters while Reform has soaked up ex-Tories and many people who had previously stopped voting.

“In England, Labour has been losing voters to Greens and Lib Dems, in Wales progressive voters are switching to Plaid,” said Larner.

He added that the final result would depend to a large degree on turnout, which is typically low for Senedd elections and by-elections in particular.