JPMorgan says oil could rise to the high $80s by May
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Brent crude oil futures are poised to rise $10 a barrel over the next three months even without any geopolitical risk premium built in, according to JPMorgan’s commodity analysts. That would put the global benchmark just below $90 a barrel by May based on Wednesday’s settlement of $79.21. “Crucially, our constructive price outlook assumes zero geopolitical premium and a view that Saudi Arabia and Russia will bring a combined [400,000 barrels per day] of their voluntary cuts back into the market starting from April,” Natasha Kaneva, head of JPMorgan’s commodities strategy team, told clients in a Thursday note. Oil prices are expected to rise as the market tightens due to falling global crude inventories, Kaneva wrote. Inventories stand at 4.4 billion barrels worldwide — a record low since 2017, the analyst said. Crude inventories are falling around the world as the economy remains resilient with the U.S., Europe and China maintaining stable growth, which is positive for oil demand, according to JPMorgan. OPEC+ is also exporting 1.3 million barrels per day fewer than the members’ October peak. “Near-term dynamics aside, our Brent outlook continues to project a tightening market with prices rising from here by another $10 by May,” Kaneva told clients.
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