It was a tough week for the 'Magnificent 7.' Here's where Wall Street sees the market leaders going next
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The coming year may not prove quite as golden for leading technology stocks, but some of last year’s winners may continue to race ahead, according to analysts. Just seven mega cap tech stocks — Apple , Alphabet , Meta , Microsoft , Amazon , Nvidia and Tesla — now account for more than a quarter of the S & P 500’s total market capitalization. The group, colloquially known as the ” Magnificent 7 ,” dominated the market last year, with each company’s stock gaining at least 49%. Nvidia, however, more than tripled, and Tesla’s shares more than doubled last year. Few investors see anything similar happening in 2024, but most haven’t lost faith in the group’s growth outlook. CNBC Pro screened the “Magnificent 7” stocks to find which of them analysts predict will see the best performance in 2024, according to their average investment rating and consensus price targets. By and large analysts remain bullish on the Mag 7, but believe some leading lights, such as Tesla and Apple , may begin to hold the group back. In fact, cracks may already be starting to show. Analysts’ top pick in the group for 2024 is Nvidia , the crown jewel of the craze surrounding artificial intelligence. Nearly 78% of analysts covering the stock rate it a buy, according to FactSet, and they think shares could gain roughly 38% over the next 12 months based on the average price target. The chipmaker soared almost 240% last year. Although the shares are off about 1% this week, the stock is up 2.2% Friday after Bank of America named Nvidia a top pick . The bank expects Nvidia to generate as much as $100 billion in free cash flow over 2024 and 2025 combined, and that as much as $70 billion of that could be used to fund internal and external “growth initiatives.” A greater percentage of analysts — almost 85% — have a buy rating on Amazon . They forecast nearly 26% upside for the dominant e-commerce stock, whose shares gained more than 80% in 2023. Multiple analysts have named Amazon a top pick for 2024 based on optimism surrounding its web services division, advertising spending and e-commerce growth at the same time as it accelerates its generative AI capabilities. Growing advertising revenue is a key story for Amazon this year, given the Olympics in Paris this summer and U.S. presidential election in November, analysts have said. Bank of America on Wednesday saw a “solid” year for Amazon advertising, anticipating potential incremental ad revenue of $3.15 billion and $4.77 billion in total incremental ad and subscription revenue in 2024. Partnership deals with Pinterest , Meta and Snap should help expand Amazon’s network ad revenue, the bank added. Apple , which has the largest market value of any U.S. company, faces a tougher year ahead, according to analysts, who forecast only about 9% upside for the shares from current prices. Only Tesla lags Apple’s consensus upside forecast. Both Amazon and Apple took a beating this week, with the iPhone maker losing 5.8% after receiving two sell side downgrades. Piper Sandler downgraded Apple to neutral from overweight, citing valuation concerns, macroeconomic weakness and a strained handset outlook, while Barclays downgraded shares to underweight, citing “lackluster” iPhone 15 sales that could serve as a warning for future iPhone 16 sales. Not all are downbeat on the Tim Cook-led company, however. Goldman thinks Apple is a “quality compounder” that could benefit from a recovery in industry PC demand this year, while Keith Fitz-Gerald, principal at the Fitz-Gerald Group, said now is a “golden opportunity” to buy Apple while shares are pulling back. Electric vehicle maker Tesla, meanwhile, is down 4.5% this week. Already, the company has fallen behind BYD market leading position in China, where it’s also faced a couple of recent recalls. On Friday, China’s State Administration for Market Regulation said Tesla is recalling more than 1.6 million of its EVs there due to problems with door latch and autosteering functions, helping send the stock fractionally lower Friday. Roughly a third of analysts covering Tesla rate it a buy, according to FactSet, and on average the stock is expected to only rise 2% from current levels. Bernstein’s Toni Sacconaghi, who holds an extremely bearish price target on Tesla, thinks that the Elon Musk-led automaker will likely see lower margins and post disappointing sales volumes this year. “We believe more investors will begin to increasingly question the company’s growth narrative, particularly since we believe that Tesla will struggle to grow deliveries 20% in 2024 (and 2025),” he said in a Tuesday note. Analysts remain bullish on Microsoft and Alphabet this year, holding 79% and 72% consensus buy ratings on the stocks, respectively. Upside looks more limited for both the stocks in 2024 compared to last year, however. Facebook owner Meta, which is expected to bolster its ad creation and social media content through AI, is also only expected to gain roughly 10%, analysts surveyed by FactSet believe.
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