How Iran miscalculated its gamble in the Pakistan strike

It is hard to believe, but authorities in Tehran seemed not to have anticipated Islamabad’s tit-for-tat response to an Iranian attack on Pakistani territory earlier this week. 

While the tensions appear to have cooled, there are more questions than answers surrounding the tense episode. Whether it was fully calibrated or simply a reckless move, Iran’s strike almost threw it into a state of full-blown war with its nuclear power eastern neighbor, which boasts the world’s sixth-largest military and has historically placed deterrence and security as their highest priority to tackle potential threats from its neighboring foe, India. 

Iran said the strike was aimed at Jaish al-Adl “terrorists” operating from inside Pakistani territory and came as retaliation for a recent skirmish in which 11 Iranian soldiers were killed by the extremist Sunni group, which has been engaged in a bloody war against the Islamic Republic for over a decade. Islamabad was quick to question the justification in a strongly worded statement that slammed the “unprovoked and blatant” attack. 

The Iranian strike occurred less than a day after Tehran pounded the residence of an influential businessman in Iraqi Kurdistan, killing him and three other civilians, including his 11-month-old daughter. Iran claimed the building was a “spy center” linked to the Israeli foreign intelligence agency, Mossad. The attack drew condemnation from Iraqi authorities and prompted Baghdad to recall its ambassador from Tehran and threatened to cancel a security agreement between the two countries.