Ace Bailey Complicates The Sixers' NBA Draft Dilemma With The No. 3 Pick

When the Philadelphia 76ers won the No. 3 overall pick in the 2025 NBA draft, it was both a blessing and a curse.

The Sixers entered the draft lottery with the fifth-best odds of landing the No. 1 overall pick, but they also had a roughly 36% chance of walking out empty-handed. They owed their first-round pick to the Oklahoma City Thunder if it fell outside of the top six, and they were at dire risk of conveying that pick after the Dallas Mavericks and San Antonio Spurs jumped up to the Nos. 1 and 2 picks, respectively.

The good news is that the Sixers’ combination of ping-pong balls came up next. The bad news is that they landed the third overall pick in a class with only two clear-cut top options.

The Mavericks haven’t even bothered pretending that they’re doing anything other than taking Duke forward Cooper Flagg with the No. 1 overall pick. The Spurs are slightly more of a wild card, as Rutgers guard Dylan Harper is the consensus second-best player in the class but could be an awkward positional fit with fellow guards De’Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle. However, ESPN’s Jonathan Givony wrote Wednesday that “San Antonio is excited about the possibility of adding a talent of Harper’s caliber and is willing to be patient, figuring out roster construction concerns later.”

Assuming the Spurs do take Harper at No. 2, the Sixers have a tough decision to make at No. 3 with no consensus third-best prospect on the board. Harper’s former college teammate, Ace Bailey, is only adding to that uncertainty with less than a week to go until the draft. Late Wednesday night, Givony and ESPN’s Shams Charania reported that Bailey canceled his visit to the Sixers, which was expected to take place later this week.

“Bailey’s predraft strategy has perplexed NBA teams over the past month, as he is currently the only U.S.-based prospect yet to visit any clubs,” Givony and Charania wrote. “He has declined invitations from multiple teams in his draft range, which is considered to be anywhere from No. 3 to No. 8.”

They noted that the Sixers “have not ruled out selecting Bailey despite his refusal to visit.” But he’s emblematic of the difficult choice awaiting them if they stay at No. 3 rather than trading up or trading down, both of which they’ve reportedly explored.

The Case For Ace

Sixers team president Daryl Morey is an ardent believer in taking the best player available in the draft, particularly this high in the lottery, regardless of positional fit. Although there are some concerns about how Baylor guard VJ Edgecombe and Texas guard Tre Johnson might overlap with Tyrese Maxey, Jared McCain and Quentin Grimes (if the Sixers re-sign him in free agency), Bailey would have a far clearer runway from a positional perspective.

Bailey measured in at 6’7½” without shoes at the draft combine, which clearly makes him a forward in the NBA. The Sixers do have Paul George and Kelly Oubre Jr. (who’s expected to pick up his $8.4 million player option for the 2025-26 season), but they’re largely bereft of forward depth behind those two. Even if Bailey began his NBA career coming off the bench, he’d likely supplant Oubre in short order.

The case for taking Bailey is simple: His ceiling is “the second-best player in this class if he improves his area of need,” according to Veania alone of The Athletic. His ability as an individual shot-maker caught the eye of Georgewho said earlier this year that he even preferred Bailey to Flagg because of his upside.

The Sixers signed George to a four-year max contract last offseason to round out their Big Three next to Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey, but that trio never got off the ground in 2024-25 due to a nonstop barrage of injuries. Given Embiid’s age (31), size and lengthy injury history, it’s fair to wonder whether he’ll ever get back to being the MVP-caliber player that he was before he tore his meniscus in January 2024.

If the Sixers are already looking ahead to their post-Embiid/George era, Bailey’s upside might be too enticing to turn down. However, his last-minute cancellation is the latest in a series of red flags that have popped up with him in recent months.

The Case Against Ace

On Tuesday, Givony reported that “the feedback from [Bailey’s] interviews at the draft combine in Chicago was not all that positive, with some teams expressing concern about his lack of preparation and focus.” He added that Bailey “has been polarizing in internal front office conversations because of questions about his feel for the game and lack of polish, creating a wider draft range than initially anticipated.”

Vecenie hinted at that tension, noting that “there are just a lot of moving parts” for Bailey to hit his ceiling, including improving his bend and flexibility, his shooting percentage, his decision-making and his engagement on defense. “Ultimately, though, it all feels like a bit of a house of cards to me,” Vecenie added, while saying he’d be “somewhat uncomfortable with drafting a player like this in the top five.”

The big question from the Sixers’ perspective isn’t necessarily about Bailey’s ceiling. It’s about whether he’d buy into whatever role they asked him to play.

Givony reported Wednesday that “Bailey’s camp has informed interested teams that they believe he is a top-three player in the draft, but also seeks a clear pathway to stardom, hoping to find a situation with ample minutes and usage to maximize his chances of reaching his full potential.” From that perspective, the Utah Jazz at No. 5, Washington Wizards at No. 6 or Brooklyn Nets at No. 8 would be far better landing spots for him.

However, Bailey claimed to have modeled his game after George, Kevin Durant and Jayson Tatum. While Durant hit the ground running after the then-Seattle SuperSonics took him with the No. 2 overall pick in 2007, both George and Tatum had slower starts to their NBA careers. George averaged only 7.8 points per game as a rookie and 12.1 points per game in his second season before taking off, and Tatum followed a somewhat similar trajectory. The same goes for Jimmy Butler and Kawhi Leonard, too.

Derek Bodner of PHLY Sports noted that if Bailey bought into being more of an off-ball role player early in his career, his offensive strengths could make him a legitimate weapon. But if he’s overly concerned about his shot volume, drafting him at No. 3 could come to the detriment of the entire team.

This is what makes the draft such an inexact science. The Sixers undoubtedly have talked to coaches who’ve worked with Bailey and the other prospects whom they’re considering at No. 3 to get a sense of their personalities, work ethic, etc. But until they get a prospect in their building and begin working with them full-time, there’s no way to know exactly how his development will pan out. Look no further than Markelle Fultz, who appeared to be a perfect fit with the Sixers on paper until a shoulder injury immediately derailed his career.

According to Givony, Edgecombe “made a strong impression in a private workout” with the Sixers “as well as in meetings with the front office and ownership.” As of Tuesday, he appeared to be “the leader in the clubhouse” if the Sixers stick at No. 3, which longtime NBA insider Jake Fischer echoed.

Even though Edgecombe could be a trickier fit positionally on the Sixers than Bailey, they might be turned off by Bailey’s approach to the game. Then again, all of these leaks could be a smokescreen either trying to gin up interest from another team in trading up or Bailey’s agent trying to steer him to another team.

Luckily, we’ll know what the Sixers wind up doing in less than a week. Whatever they decide will have huge implications both for the future of their Big Three and their long-term outlook.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spot and salary-cap information via Realgm. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

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