A Good Two-Year-Old Makes For Kentucky Derby Dreams On January 1

Dreams of running beneath the Twin Spires on the first Saturday in May can be prominent this time of year for the connections of a talented two-year-old

John Gallagher

Twas a couple weeks to the new year and all through the barn

Talented two-year-olds make you feel like a kitten with a ball of yarn

Bridles are hung by the stall with care

With hopes a start in the Derby soon will be there

Tiz the season for many wonderful things, and in the Thoroughbred racing game, this is when dreams of the Kentucky Derby begin. On January 1, all those horses foaled in 2023 will begin racing as three-year-olds and that is the magical age for starters in the world’s most famous race. That means if a two-year-old with some talent is hanging around the barn, the connections are delightfully dreaming of the first Saturday in May.

“The Kentucky Derby is one of the main driving forces in the industry”, says Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher. “It’s the race everyone wants to win so it naturally brings a lot of excitement to the connections of these young horses. For me, it is one of the most fun parts of training when you try and manage that potential.”

Pletcher has done an excellent job of preparing young horses over the years. The eight-time Eclipse Award winning conditioner has started more horses in the Kentucky Derby (65) than any other trainer in history. Having visited the winner’s circle with Super Saver in 2010 and Always Dreaming in 2017, the Texas-native has enjoyed the big prize at the sport’s toughest race to win. Of course, you can’t win the Derby if you are not in the Derby and no one has been better at navigating a path to those hallowed starting gates than Todd Pletcher.

Always Dreaming provided Todd Pletcher with his second win in the Kentucky Derby in 2017

Danny Brewer

“Each one of the two-year-olds can be a little different, so figuring out where to send horses to prep and which races to run in can be a big challenge”, says Pletcher. “We have been very blessed with a lot of good, young horses over the years and we have figured out how important it is to find the place where they will develop the best based on environment, track conditions, race length, and what not. Bringing them along in their development and making sure you get the qualifying points to get in is an ever-evolving process. In this game you have to be ready to pivot at all times.”

A spot in the starting gates for the Kentucky Derby is granted based on a points qualifying system. Races are run at various tracks in both the United States and abroad in an effort to get the best three-year-old horses competing for that blanket of roses. There are twenty spots available, which is more than any other race in North America, but considering how coveted those spots are, the points races are extremely important. As the Derby draws closer, the races award more points so winning in March and April carries more significance. As is the case with any young athlete, the progression can be different and the physical and mental maturation can happen quickly or sometimes in not such a timely manner. Good two-year-olds do not always become better three-year-olds by that desired date.

“You usually don’t know if you have a real contender until February or March”, says trainer Bob Baffert, who has started thirty-five horses in the Kentucky Derby and won the race a record-tying six times. “These young horses can change so much so quickly it is really hard to figure them out until then. It’s always exciting to have talent coming into the year, but the most important thing early is to manage your expectations and try not to get excited to early.”

Trainer Bob Baffert, left, has won the Kentucky Derby six times and has been the best in the modern era at getting horses ready for the world’s most famous race.

BENOIT PHOTO

Having saddled winners in 1997 (Silver Charm), 1998 (Real Quiet), 2002 (War Emblem), 2015 (American Pharoah), 2018 (Justify), and 2020 (Authentic), Baffert’s expertise in developing three-year-olds to their peak for a run beneath the Twin Spires is undeniable. Two of those winners, American Pharoah and Justify, went on to win the Triple Crown. Even though this California-based conditioner has enjoyed long-standing success, he clearly understands Derby horses do not grow on trees and their development drastically differs.

“Horses like American Pharoah and Justify are like fine pieces of art”, says the Hall of Fame trainer. “They don’t come along all that often, but you always have hope that there is a Picasso in your barn. Right now, these young horses are a blank canvas and you hope you can apply the right brush strokes to make a master piece.”

Trained by Bob Baffert, Justify dazzled in the Kentucky Derby in 2018 and then went on to win the Triple Crown

Danny Brewer

The road that leads to the Kentucky Derby already has thirty-two horses that have acquired qualifying points with the Todd Pletcher-trained Ted Noffey as the leader with 40. Three points races will be run for these now-two-year-olds before the end of the year and the 2026 points races begin on January 3. How many horses are really in contention? As veteran trainer Dale Romans very aptly once stated, “When it comes to a talented two-year old turning three, they are all Derby horses until they are not”.

The Kentucky Derby will be contested at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky on May 2, 2026.