Iran, misreading Trump’s resolve, escalates conflict in Yemen ahead of US midterms

The Iranian government seems to believe it is winning the war.

There is a view in Tehran that Trump is politically constrained ahead of the US midterm elections. In this reading, Iran’s policy of calibrated escalation, and its impact on oil prices, could contribute to Republicans losing control of one or both houses of Congress in November, thereby weakening Trump’s standing for the remainder of his term.

The war, of course, has its critics in the United States, including within the Republican Party. Rising energy prices tied to the conflict have contributed in part to the cost of living, Americans’ top concern heading into the elections.

Iran’s strategy has therefore been to ratchet up the conflict on multiple fronts: tit-for-tat strikes on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz; attacks on US partners and bases in Jordan, Iraqi Kurdistan and the Gulf, including today’s attack on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline; the resumption of activity at the Pickaxe Mountain nuclear facility; and, most notably over the past 48 hours, support for Yemeni rebel groups that routed Saudi-aligned forces and seized control of the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, a strategically important shipping corridor and alternative to Hormuz.