Analysis-Middle East conflict puts Dubai mega-hub's market muscle to the test

By Federico Maccioni and Tim Hepher

DUBAI/PARIS, March 2 (Reuters) – Escalating conflict in the Middle East has laid bare how heavily global air travel relies on a handful of hubs led by Dubai, the world’s busiest international airport, after the shutdown of Gulf airspace rippled quickly across airline networks worldwide.

Four decades after the Gulf’s trading capital set out to exploit its strategic location by setting up Emirates with two rented jets and two routes, Dubai stands at the centre of a global network spanning 110 nations and 454,000 flights a year.

“That we’ve got such a well-spread geographic business model and are well spread between visitors and those in transit suggests it’s very robust and will continue to survive any geopolitical tension that exists, wherever it may be,” Dubai Airports CEO Paul Griffiths told Reuters in a recent interview.

On Saturday, U.S. and Israeli strikes against Iran brought such tensions to Dubai’s doorstep, including an attack on the airport itself.

MOMENTOUS TASK PIECING NETWORK BACK TOGETHER

Dubai now has the momentous task of handling tens of thousands of displaced passengers and piecing its network back together while trying to minimise damage to inbound flights that represent half its traffic.

Most analysts say that, barring a prolonged regional war, the Gulf hubs will recover by virtue of the momentum and the power of their networks. But the unprecedented shutdown of all three major hubs – Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Doha – coincides with growing competition from Turkey, Saudi Arabia and India.

“There’s no doubt at all this is temporary. They have seen major incidents before and recovered very quickly due to their importance as global hubs,” said UK-based travel consultant Paul Charles. “They will recover quickly, even if there is substantial uncertainty in the short term.”

Others are less certain. The whole industry bounced back from the beating taken during the COVID-19 pandemic thanks to demand outpacing supply. This time, however, it is demand that is at risk.

“Travellers are likely to consider more direct flights rather than stop over in Dubai or Doha. All this hub traffic is likely to take a hit,” said independent aviation adviser Bertrand Grabowski.

FAVOURABLE GEOGRAPHY OF GULF HUBS

Geography and economics remain strong allies, however.

“One third of the world’s population is within four hours’ flying time and two thirds within eight hours,” said Dubai Airports’ Griffiths.

“We’ve seen the incredible aggregation power that a hub delivers.”

But threats to the Gulf trio are brewing. Turkish Airlines could be the biggest short-term winner through its own mega-hub outside the conflict zone, said independent aviation analyst John Strickland.

Saudi Arabia is also muscling in, followed by India, with Asian carriers picking up passengers.

Advances in aircraft design – once favourable to Gulf airlines – are also beginning to work against them. Airbus last week began assembling a second ultra-long-range A350 jet to support plans by Qantas to fly directly from Sydney to London.

RAPID GROWTH DURING PAST CONFLICT

Emirates was founded at the height of the Iran-Iraq war in 1985. Its rapid growth led to the splintering of Gulf Air – carrier for Qatar, Bahrain, Abu Dhabi and Oman at that time – as first Qatar then Abu Dhabi set up their own airlines to form what remains a trio of Gulf hubs competing for passengers.

With Dubai’s orderly reputation shaken by Iranian attacks and anti-missile shrapnel, analysts say the greatest uncertainty of all hangs over the future of traffic to the city itself.

Questions have also been raised over timing of the already delayed expansion of a giant new airport outside the city.

Dubai destination traffic “will doubtless recover, but there is likely to be some lasting damage”, Grabowski said.

For Emirates and sister airline flydubai, that may involve using their market power to get the system running again.

“People have short memories and they might be incentivised by some bargain deals to bring people back, but I don’t think that would need to be there for long,” said Eddy Pieniazek, head of advisory at aviation and leasing consultancy Ishka.

(Reporting by Federico Maccioni and Tim HepherAdditional reporting by Julie ZhuEditing by David Goodman)