India’s lion numbers soar: Why are some conservationists worried?

On May 21, the forest department of the western Indian state of Gujarat released results of the country’s first lion population estimation since 2020. According to the census, India’s wild lion population – exclusively concentrated in Gujarat – has risen by 32 percent over the past five years to 891 lions.

India’s lion conservation efforts have long been focused on the Gir forest and surrounding areas of Gujarat, especially since the creation of the Gir National Park and Sanctuary in 1965. Today, lions have dispersed and established separate satellite populations outside the Gir region and are found in 11 districts in Gujarat.

But for the first time, the census counted more lions across nine satellite populations (497) than the core population (394) in Gir. These include three new populations in neighbouring districts of Gir, including the Barda Wildlife Sanctuary, areas around Jetpur city, and areas around Babra and Jasdan towns — all in Gujarat.

The census report has earmarked Barda Wildlife Sanctuary as a “second home” for the big cat in Gujarat, echoing the stance of the state and central governments, which also have argued in favour of developing and managing Barda to host more lions. Indeed, that is one of the primary goals of the 29,277 million Indian rupee ($341m) Project Lion conservation programme announced by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government in March.

But the surging number of lions masks challenges that confront the future of the species in India, say experts, and questions remain over whether the country is doing enough to minimise human-animal conflict and ensure the long-term conservation of the animal. On June 25, a lion mauled a five-year-old boy to death in Gujarat’s Amreli district, after dragging the child away from a farm.

We unpack the key findings of the census and the key battles ahead for the big cat in India.

How were the lions counted?

As per the Gujarat Forest Department, the lion population estimation was conducted over two 24-hour recording schedules from May 11-13. The state’s lion landscape was divided into 735 sampling regions, each entrusted to an enumerator and two assistant enumerators. Lions were located and photographed with digital cameras, and cross-verified with adjacent sampling regions to avoid duplication, according to the report.

Yadvendradev Jhala, an expert on big cat conservation and formerly with the Wildlife Institute of India (WII), however, cautioned that “double counting” cannot be ruled out, and at the same time, some lions might have been missed “due to the time constraint” imposed by the two-day exercise.

Ravi Chellam, a veteran wildlife biologist involved with lion conservation since 1985, questioned the logic of a methodology that required field staff to stay alert for 24 hours on two consecutive days. “One can well imagine the fatigue levels and diminished state of alertness of the field staff,” he said. “I find it difficult to believe that reliable and accurate data can be collected with such an approach.”

According to both experts, there are more robust and reliable scientific methods, like combining photographs of lions with the use of whisker patterns – similar to human fingerprints – to identify individual lions.

Still, Jhala said that the actual count is likely not very different from the census number.

What’s behind the sharp rise in lion numbers?

Experts say that a combination of the Gujarat state government’s policies and the adaptability of lions has contributed to the successful rise in the numbers.

According to Jhala, lions will continue to expand their population as long as there is food and cover available, and the animals aren’t attacked. “There is food in the form of livestock, dead carcasses for scavenging, as well as feral cattle for predation,” he said.

The Gujarat government’s “compensation for livestock loss is almost near market value and is revised regularly to reflect current market rates,” Jhala said. This has allowed continued human-lion coexistence.

Meanwhile, the new census shows that the coastal Gujarat district of Bhavnagar and adjacent areas along the state’s coast – far from the dry deciduous habitats of Gir – are now home to 212 lions. The thorny shrubs of the invasive Prosopis juliflora species (a kind of mesquite) along the coast provide “refuge for lions through the day, and they can come out at night to feed in agropastoral landscapes,” Jhala said.

How many more lions can Gujarat host?

Since 2010, Gujarat’s lion population has more than doubled, and their territorial range has increased by 75 percent, from 20,000 to 35,000 square kilometres (7,700 to 13,500 square miles). However, only 1800sq km falls under protected areas, of which only 250sq km is exclusive to lions.

According to the census, 45 percent of lions recorded were found in non-forested areas such as wastelands, agricultural lands and near human habitats.

“They run the risk of falling into open wells, being run over by heavy vehicles and trains, getting electrocuted and also contracting infections,” Chellam said. He pointed out that lions have been regularly documented in unusual locations such as the terraces of homes, in the basement parking lots of hotels, and on busy highways.

Chellam argued that “the region as a whole has far exceeded its carrying capacity.” He says it’s not sensible to have an “increasing lion population in what are essentially human habitations”.

Jhala agreed. “The question is: How much are people willing to tolerate a large carnivore in their neighbourhood?”

What is the impact of soaring lion numbers on the people of Gujarat?

According to a human-lion conflict study in the Conservation Biology journal published in November, there has been a 10 percent annual increase in the number of villages in Gujarat reporting livestock attacks and a 15 percent increase in livestock killed per year.

The paper uses data collected from 2012-2017. Jhala, who a co-author of the study, anticipates growing human-lion conflict.

“It’s not easy to live with a large carnivore,” he said. “You learn that you can’t let your kids roam around in the fields at night, that you need to clear the vegetation near your huts, that going out for defecation in the field during twilight hours is to be prevented, that you need walled corrals for your livestock.”

Chellam agreed. “While the increase in the number of lions is viewed by many, and especially the government, as a positive sign, the reality is that more and more lions are risking themselves as well as the lives of tens of thousands of people,” he said. “There have been numerous instances of people harassing lions and also an increasing trend of lions attacking people.”

Is Barda a ‘second home’ for the lion?

As per the census report, for the first time since 1879, the Barda Wildlife Sanctuary has an established lion population (17) within its range. While the Gujarat government pitches Barda as a “second home” for lions, Chellam and Jhala say its small size and proximity to Gir mean that it fails the test of what qualifies as a geographically distinct habitat that can sustain a “second” lion population.

“The satellite population in Barda counts as a range expansion for lions, but it cannot be considered a separate population since they are contiguous with Gir,” Jhala said.

“The whole point in translocating lions to establish a ‘second’ free-ranging population is to ensure geographical isolation, to mitigate the risks of having the entire population of an endangered species at a single site,” Chellam explained.

Barda is 100km from Gir, and just 200sq km in size, compared with 1,400sq km of core protected area in Gir. “It [Barda] is a small area with a very low-density prey population. It is incapable of hosting a viable population of lions,” he added.

“The risks are numerous and include cyclones, floods, forest fires, disease outbreaks, political decisions, droughts, poaching, violence and wars.”

Why aren’t lions being moved outside Gujarat?

That’s a question that has piqued conservationists – and frustrated even the Supreme Court of India.

In April 2013, the country’s top court ordered the Gujarat state government to translocate a few Asiatic lions to Kuno National Park in the neighbouring state of Madhya Pradesh within six months to create a geographically separate, free-ranging lion population. Kuno, with its large tracts of forests and grasslands, was identified as having the perfect landscape and prey base for lions.

Though the Gujarat government assured the top court that it would comply with the order, 12 years later, the order is still to be implemented, and neither the federal nor the state government has faced any consequences. “It is very disappointing to see the levels of impunity with which the state government of Gujarat and also the government of India have been operating when it comes to the translocation of lions to Kuno,” Chellam said.

According to Jhala, it is also a failure on the part of wildlife biologists and conservationists. “You cannot do conservation without the government. I think biologists have failed in convincing the government that Kuno is an ideal place to have a second home for lions,” Jhala said.

Haven’t cheetahs been moved to Kuno?

On September 17, 2022, eight Southeast African Cheetahs were flown in from Namibia to Kuno National Park as part of India’s efforts to reintroduce the cheetah to the country. Cheetahs had previously gone extinct in India in 1952.

However, the introduction of cheetahs to Kuno set off a debate over whether that would impede plans to also move lions to the Madhya Pradesh reserve.

Jhala, who led the 2022 plan to bring cheetahs back to India, said it was “fantastic” to have the animals back in India – and that lions and cheetahs could easily coexist in Kuno.

“In no way do cheetahs prevent lions from going there. In fact, they would do better than cheetahs, the landscape and prey base in Kuno is perfect for lions,” he said.

Bringing in lions could also be helpful for cheetahs, Jhala added. Kuno has one of the highest leopard densities in the world, at 22 leopards per 100sq km. Leopards pose more of a predatory threat to cheetahs; lions can help reduce leopard density as they prey on leopards, especially the young ones.

Chellam, though, questioned the intentions of the cheetah reintroduction plan, which he alleged was “more to continue to stall and delay the translocation of lions [to Kuno] rather than to conserve cheetahs”.

Like Jhala, Chellam said that lions would do well in Kuno. “Lions are very hardy and robust animals. If the translocation is planned and carried out carefully, there is no reason for the lions not to thrive in Kuno.”

What’s next for the big cat?

“It [lions in Gujarat] is a wonderful conservation story,” Jhala said. “But a lot can be done for the lion as a species. Forget about Kuno; we should try and establish lion populations across its historical range, within and outside of India”. The old range of lions in Asia extended from Persia to eastern India – the last of Asia’s lions outside India were shot and killed in Iran in the 1940s.

The current concentration of lions in just Gujarat, Chellam said, was a “ticking time bomb”.

With lion numbers ballooning in human habitats, he said it was important for the government to recognise that “space and availability of good quality habitats are a severe constraint [in Gujarat].”