These cheap turnaround candidates have 20% upside potential, says Jefferies
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Not all laggard stocks are destined to remain losers, according to Jefferies. Strong economic data has propelled the stock market to new heights, with the S & P 500 notching yet another record close on Friday. But even as equities have soared, some names have been left behind. Technology-adjacent stocks outperformed in January, while cyclical sectors such as property and automobiles lagged behind, wrote Desh Peramunetilleke, Jefferies’ global head of quantitative strategy. On the whole, the analyst believes that global equities now look expensive. “Soft landing expectation for the US along with falling inflation sharply boosted equities in 4Q23. Global equity valuations have not been this rich recently outside of the COVID year,” he wrote. “However, most of the rich valuations is concentrated in the USA.” Though stocks may be trading above fair valuation on a broader level, Peramunetilleke pointed out several “turnaround candidates,” or names that could return at least 20% from their current level with close to a 100% hit rate. To meet the criteria for the screen, the stocks had to be U.S.-listed, with market capitalizations of at least $2 billion. They also had to have a negative return over the last 12 months, and subsequently have a return potential upside of 20%, with more than an 80% hit rate — or probability of a positive return based on current price-to-earnings ratio — for the next 12 months. Peramunetilleke added that he also looked for attractively valued names with good profitability. Here are some of the names that made the strategist’s list: One name was chocolate confectionary manufacturer Hershey , which has slid nearly 17% over the last 12 months. Most analysts covering the stock have assigned it a hold rating, while the average consensus price target calls for a more than 8% upside. Shares of Hershey climbed 4% on Thursday, after the company posted fourth-quarter adjusted earnings that exceeded analyst expectations. But the stock gave back most of those gains on Friday. AllianceBernstein upgraded the stock to an outperform rating in January, citing an attractive valuation and continued top-line growth. “Hershey has the pricing power and innovation capabilities to continue to drive sales growth in the category, while other parts of the portfolio (and potentially further acquisitions) are likely to support volume growth,” wrote analyst Alexia Howard. Another stock Peramunetilleke highlighted was automotive manufacturing firm General Motors , down 7% in the last year. The majority of analysts covering the name rate it as a buy, with consensus price targets estimating a nearly 28% upside for the stock. Following General Motors’ fourth-quarter earnings and revenue beat , Morgan Stanley reiterated its overweight rating on the stock. Analyst Adam Jonas simultaneously raised his price target to $43, implying that shares could rally 11% from their Thursday close. Peramunetilleke also pinpointed Five Below as a potential turnaround candidate. Shares of the discount retailer have slipped 7% in the past 12 months. Analysts are overwhelmingly bullish on the name, with the average price target indicating a 17% upside for the stock. Last month, Citi reiterated Five Below at a buy rating . “FIVE’s strong holiday results coupled with strong new store productivity leave us feeling confident in their compelling LT growth story, which we still believe is one of the most attractive in retail,” the bank wrote. On the other hand, Oppenheimer downgraded the name to perform from outperform in January, citing slowing growth dynamics. Other names belonging to Jefferies’ basket of stocks with potential upside include Kinder Morgan , Starbucks , eBay and United Airlines . — CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.
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